Water Resources and Power

Based on the basic theory of information entropy,a method is proposed to quantitative evaluate the coupling effect,which is realized through the reform of the information entropy function.The forecasting capabilities of every point are evaluated by the self-information,which include the obtain information ability of rainfall prediction,the information processing ability of rainfall prediction,the system calling ability and the input and output ability of the coupling system.The membership of uncertain factors is determined by the mathematical statistics method.An example results show that the proposed method can estimate the uncertain effect of hydrological forecast owing to extending of forecast period,which provides supporting for accuracy evaluation and the application of the forecast result.