Water Resources and Power

The prediction results of groundwater numerical simulation model may be greatly influenced by parameter uncertainty.In this paper,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the prediction results of Jinci spring was discussed.Based on the groundwater flow model of Jinci spring area,the GLUE method was used to screen out the sensitive hydrological parameters in the model and finally find 167 relatively optimal groups of parameters.And then,these optimal groups of parameters were used to calculate the discharge of Jinci spring under different rainfall and exploitation conditions and analyze the influence of parameter uncertainty on the prediction results.The results show that the uncertainties of the model parameters have a great influence on the prediction results.The influence is obvious when the exploitation is large or precipitation is small.On the contrary,the influence is limited with little exploitation and large precipitation.Besides,the result also indicates that only decreasing the exploitation or only increasing the recharge is not an effective way to accelerate the reflow of the Jinci spring.